Social Security Solvency & the Long Bond: Time for Heavy Lifting

Most discussion of Social Security Solvency has been in the context of Privatization and more narrowly on whether private accounts help or not. A certain consensus has shaken out: to the extent that "Crisis" exists it doesn't manifest itself until the 2040's and private accounts in and of themselves wouldn't help anyway. So there is a tendency to agree with the following memorable phrase: "Social Security Privatization is as dead as Bob Dole's dick, let's move on".

But it is not just about private accounts. Sure killing the 70 year dream of the Republican Party of killing Social Security by privatizing it is important for all kinds of reasons, notably 2006 midterms. But there are important macoeconomic implications to Solvency. Assessments of the impacts of Current Account deficits and the impact of Bush Tax Cuts both depend critically on the Trust Fund balance in the year 2025, Solvency will rock our world.  More below the fold, warning: bring numbers.

Hopefully enough troll repellent.

Supporters of Social Security have been playing defense since November, time to play offense. I am going to assume a certain familiarity with the numbers and terminology here, those who want some background can find it at my blog and more specifically on these pages: The Three Alternatives and What is the Low Cost Alternative

For the purposes of this diary I am going to assume Low Cost, that is that economic productivity growth for 2005 will meet or exceed 2.1% and that growth in the outyears will meet or exceed 1.9%. Not a stretch by any means, reported 2004 came in at 3.3% and the average over the last six years has been better than that. 2005 Report: Economic Assumptions

We start with the graph 2005 Report: Trust Fund Ratios Now outcome ( II ) is our old friend Intermediate Cost, Trust Fund Ratio peaks in 2013 and sinks more or less rapidly to 2041. But Low Cost produces outcome ( I ): the Trust Fund Ratio doesn't peak until 2022, sags a minor amount and then sails through the 75 year window maintaining a 4 1/2 year reserve.

This doesn't fully capture the dollar picture, the Trust Funds continue to grow even after the ratio begins to decline. For Intermediate Cost the dollar peak occurs in 2023. Under Low Cost interestingly enough the peak never comes. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2005-80
Which still doesn't capture the entire picture, as long as payroll tax exceeds benefit costs interest earned on the bonds is just bookkeeping. The crux is when benefits exceed payroll, which for Intermediate is around 2018. Ironically we start borrowing five years before the actual dollar peak.

The main point for this diary is that the markets and economic forecasts generally have outcome ( II ) built in, 99% of the market assumes that the US will be faced with replacing a $6 trillion dollar bond portfolio with public borrowing to that same tune. What if that portfolio never had to be redeemed? What if borrowing didn't start to around 2023? And never hit an inflation adjusted amount of $150 billion a year until 2060 Estimates in Constant Dollars And all of this assuming just 1.9% productivity growth?

Well if anyone responds I will be glad to answer that question in detail. Short answer: Social Security Solvency transforms everything. Your view of the bond market and the role of the Chinese Central Bank may be about to change.


Display:


bring it (none / 0)

Okay, lets see what you've got !!  I saw in the Wallowinbucks Street Journal that Bush's SS plan was evolved by a chemist turned baseball statistician. Can it be that hard to do better?

While I am all for getting the best solution enacted, I think that in these days the higher priority is actually political. ie do nothing that lets the fascists get credit.

I think all their plans are predicated on

  1. the world will end soon anyway
  2. the rapture has some hidden clause which allows them to take their loot with them.  

by seesdifferent on Sat Apr 23, 2005 at 01:01:15 PM EST

Re: bring it (none / 0)

Well a little browsing in the tables helps. The bond market has already priced in a new player starting in 2018. That is the year the General Fund will start having to start borrowing from the public to pay a portion (about 25%) of the actual interest due to the Trust Fund under Intermediate Cost.  That percentage ramps up to 100% by 2023 whereupon the Trust Fund starts borrowing to repay the principal. By 2042 there is no more Trust Fund and so more legal obligation to borrow, by law benefits at that point are cut to whatever level payroll tax allows, which under Intermediate Cost is 72% of a better check than retirees would get today. However in the last year satisfying that legal obligation would require $750 billion dollars in borrowing.

Now most of this borrowing occurs within the horizon of the current 30 years bond. It starts at about $80 billion in 2018 and reaches $700 billion annually by 2035. Cumulatively that is a lot of supply in the bond pipeline and that future supply has a direct impact on the price of the 30 year bond today. Specifically it should put a downward pressure on price with subsequent increase in interest rates.

But lets say we wipe that player right off the tables between 2018 and 2023. Masses of future bond supply right off the table. And then we start borrowing $60 in 2023 billion and ramp up only to $200 billion annually by 2035. Still borrowing, but at a fraction of the rate. That is what you get under Low Cost compared to Intermediate Cost: a couple of trillion dollars in bond supply over the life of the current 30 year Treasury vanishes before your eyes. That 2005 30 year bond starts looking better by the second.

PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Sat Apr 23, 2005 at 01:51:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From my post at MaxSpeak this morning (none / 0)

I am out of here for a few hours, should anyone find the above topic boring here is another, related one which I posted to yesterdays thread and so surely will be seen by no one.

"There is an economic black hole that is distorting all discussion about future budget deficits and may explain much of the otherwise inexplicable commentary by Greenspan and the Bush Administration. I will be posting on this somewhere, sometime this weekend" (ed: i.e. on MyDD) "so let me put this in the form of a question.

What if Bush and Greenspan are simply lying through their teeth? What if they have run budget projections that use neither the 2.0% productivity number put forth by the Trustees or the 2.6% productivity number used by the 2006 Bush budget? What if they are counting on the 3.3% actually returned in 2004 per the Trustees or the 4% average reported by Bush budget writers for the last six years?

Personally I think even the boldest thinkers on our side are being a little naive in taking the printed projections as the point of departure. Assuming that Bush/Greenspan are arguing in good faith is to assume a great deal indeed. I have been waiting for some economist who has some graduate student or intern lying around practically unused to present some alternative projections. What happens to the combined account if you inject some realistic numbers into the front end of your models? 3.0% productivity would be a good starting point.

We know they are using two sets of books, you cannot reconcile the economic projections of the Trustees with those of the budget writers, but what if there is actually a third set of books using real-world economic numbers? Could we for once get a little pro-active?"

PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Sat Apr 23, 2005 at 01:56:43 PM EST

Excellent diary Bruce (none / 0)

Definite recommend.

You put some real meat on the bare bones of my effort, Social Security is Solvent Forever diary.

The facts, philosophy, politics and numbers are all on our side. There's kind of a lull in the debate until one side blinks. I hope the Dems are smart enough to stay on the sidelines and force Bush to put a plan on the table. If the Dems put out a plan first, they will lose.

I'm with you that we just sit tight until we either have at least one house of Congress or the White House. No way Dems can win with the stacked political deck they have now. No reason to do anything or let anything happen before 2006.

What's the link to your post at MaxSpeak? Don't be shy Bruce. I was over there today and all I saw was the 100th anniversary post.

Trolls have been quiet the last day or two. It's been quite pleasant. I don't know for sure if they just got bored or Jerome and Chris banned them.

by Gary Boatwright on Sun Apr 24, 2005 at 01:55:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Excellent diary Bruce (none / 0)

Thanks Gary but I copied it in full here, it was in response to the Greenspan thread immediately below.
PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Sun Apr 24, 2005 at 08:09:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A scary email from Sen. Feinstein (none / 0)

I don't know any way to fully explain my concern about the total lack of understanding by DLC Democrats than to print the entire email I received from Sen. Feinstein's office in response to an email I sent about Social Security. Here it is:

Dear Mr. Boatwright:

Thank you for expressing your opposition to President Bush's proposal to partially privatize Social Security.  This will certainly be a critical issue throughout the 109th Congress and I welcome the opportunity to respond.  I have attached my thoughts on Social Security reform, as they were printed in an Op-Ed on February 4th.

Like you, I recognize the importance of keeping Social Security sound and ensuring its solvency for older Americans.  For this reason, I strongly oppose private accounts, which could cost $1 trillion or more and still fail to improve the financial condition of Social Security.  Unless I see a proposal that protects the fiscal health of Social Security and does not dramatically increase the national debt, I will continue my opposition.

Most policy makers agree that the rate of growth of this program, as well as the oversight of its expenditures, must be addressed to ensure its integrity and preservation. President Bush favors a program of private savings accounts and will pursue such a program in the coming months.  Please know that I am committed to protecting Social Security and I will keep your comments in mind throughout the 109th Congress. I am confident that if Congress works together, it is possible that Social Security can meet its long term commitments.

Once again, thank you for contacting me.  I hope you will keep in touch on issues of importance to you.  Should you have any further questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to call my Washington, D.C. office at (202) 224-3841.

So far so good. With the exception of the sentence I emphasized, pretty solid. Unfortunately, the attached Feb. 4th Op-Ed demonstrates that Sen. Feinstein and her mathematically challenged staff pay far too much attention to the dishonest analysis of the Heritage Foundation and CATO. The only Social Security analysis Democrats should be quoting or reading is the Economic Policy Institute and the Center for Economic Policy Research.

A Vow To Fight Dismantling Social Security By U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein February 4, 2005

Social Security has provided America's senior citizens with a guaranteed retirement income since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signed it into law 70 years ago and I believe it would be a dramatic mistake to privatize even part of the system.

Half of all American workers today are not covered by retirement plans.  For them, Social Security is it.

In his State of the Union Speech, the President vowed to "strengthen and save Social Security."  But in proposing to carve out private accounts, he offered no specific proposal on how he would shore up Social Security or pay for the privatization.

Over the long run, changes are needed in Social Security, but we need to do it right.  Unfortunately, the President's plan would cut Social Security's funding, weaken the program and make its financial problems worse, not better.

With all the "crisis" rhetoric coming from the Administration, people throughout our nation are beginning to fear for the future of Social Security.  Wednesday night, after months of declaring that Social Security is in crisis, the President went so
far as to declare that by 2042 Social Security would be "exhausted and bankrupt."  That's simply not true.

We have time to do what we need to do to shore up the program financially.  On our side of the aisle, we want to fix it, and I believe we can.

There is a difference of opinion over the long-term shortfall of revenues facing Social Security.  Using very conservative predictions of U.S. economic growth, the Social Security Board of Trustees - which includes three members of the President's cabinet - has estimated that promised benefits will continue until 2042, even if no changes are made.

After 2042, recipients would continue to get 73 percent of their benefits for at least another three decades  - again, with no dramatic changes to the current system. But to ensure the benefits continue at the current level until 2080, $3.7 trillion is needed, according to the Trustees.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says the Trustees are under-estimating economic growth, $2 trillion is necessary to close the gap and recipients would get all their promised benefits until 2052 even without any revisions in the program and they would draw 78 percent of their benefits for three decades until at least 2080.

These are big numbers.  But by making some balanced long-term changes solvency could be ensured much further into the future.  Some have made proposals along the following lines:

[Editor's Note: These "solutions" are the scary part. If Democratis propose either of the first two "solutions" working Americans and Social Security lose and Bush wins.]

  •       raising the cap for payroll taxes very gradually from the current $90,000 to $143,000, which could provide up to $1.6 trillion over 75 years;
  •       ensuring increases of Social Security benefits are more accurately linked to inflation, which could save $680 billion over 75 years.
  •       repealing President Bush's tax cut for those earning more than $200,000 and transferring the revenues to Social Security, which could save about $2.9 trillion over 75 years.

[Editor's Note: Repealing Bush's tax cut is good. Transferring the revenues to Social Security is unnecessary and makes no sense.]

One other alternative would be to have the Social Security Trustees conduct an independent and comprehensive actuarial evaluation every five years and make recommendations to Congress based on this data.  Congress could approve or reject these proposed changes.

These proposals, and others, deserve careful study so that we fully understand the costs and benefits of each.  And I deeply believe that our nation should take the time to do this analysis instead of rushing headlong into one plan or another.

The President has suggested that fundamental and dramatic change is needed - in the form of private accounts.  But even the President's own advisors acknowledge his proposal would do nothing to address the Social Security shortfall.  In a leaked White House e-mail, Peter Wehner, one of the President's principal advisors, stated "we simply cannot solve the Social Security problem with Personal Retirement Accounts alone."

In fact, the President's plan to let workers begin diverting up to four percent of their income to private accounts starting in 2009 would add more than $4.5 trillion in debt over the next 20 years, according to the Center on Budget Policy Priorities.  But he has not, thus far, said how he would pay for this.

Social Security was never meant to provide more than a secure safety net - the average payment is currently $10,461 for all recipients and $11,458 for retirees.  So in order to ensure additional financial security for our seniors, we also must do much more to promote American's retirement savings.

But instead of the President's risky proposal that would provide little additional revenue for beneficiaries, we can make small changes such as automatic enrollment in 401k accounts and a simple check-off to enable people to put part of their income tax refund in an IRA account.

Some financial experts estimate that just these two small changes could double the national savings rate. Americans must do more to prepare for retirement.  We can do it without a fundamental dismantling of Social Security.

                       Sincerely yours,

                       Dianne Feinstein
                       United States Senator

I have serious concerns about both of the most prominant "cures" for Social Security that have been bandied about in Democratic circles:

 (1.) Raising the cap for payroll taxes very gradually from the current $90,000 to $143,000, which could provide up to $1.6 trillion over 75 years;
(2.) Ensuring increases of Social Security benefits are more accurately linked to inflation, which could save $680 billion over 75 years.

Even DLC types, who are mathematically challenged by their pluses and minuses, can use a calculator to discover that $143,000 X 12.2% = $17,446. That's a pretty big chunk of change for a small business owner to kick in to Social Security every year.

Assuming a small business owner earns above $143,000 for the last twenty years of their working career, they would pay $348,920 into the Social Security fund out of their net profits.

Social Security's FICA payments are already regressive. Raising the cap only makes them more regressive for a small segment of moderately high income working Americans. This "solution" is unnecessary and will reinforce the perception that Democrats are antithetic to small business.

The second "solution" of "ensuring increases of Social Security benefits are more accurately linked to inflation" is just a fancy way of saying "let's cut benefits." There is no reason to change the COLA adjustment to Social Security unless you are interested in shifting even more wealth from working Americans to the top 5%.

Somehow, we have to convince every single Democrat, including Joe Lieberman, that there is no crisis and Bush doesn't have a clue what he's talking about on Social Security. If the Democratic party could pool their resources and summon up a single collective brain and a single collective pair of cojones, that would be as easy as falling off a log.

I just started reading The Fed and I also picked up a new copy of Greider's Secrets of the Temple to refresh my recollection. I highly recommend both for anyone who wants to understand how The Fed really works.

For economic issues, One Market Under God is an essential primer.

by Gary Boatwright on Sun Apr 24, 2005 at 08:15:49 AM EST


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